2019 Canadian Election Odds: Scheer vs Trudeau, Who Has The Edge?
The 2019 Canadian Election odds are in full swing just as the election is coming. This year, we are seeing the most parties in the spotlight with six although it remains a battle between the Liberals, represented by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Conservatives, led by Andrew Scheer. Trudeau and Scheer are dead-locked and oddsmakers feel either one will win. We break down the Canadian election odds.
The 2019 Canadian Election odds are in full swing just as the election is coming.
This year, we are seeing the most parties in the spotlight with six although it remains a battle between the Liberals, represented by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Conservatives, led by Andrew Scheer. Here are their odds (per BetOnline):
- Andrew Scheer – 1.80
- Justin Trudeau – 2.10
Trudeau and Scheer are dead-locked and oddsmakers feel either one will win. We break down the Canadian election odds.
Canadian Federal Election Odds & Quick Facts:
- Scheer’s odds have risen from 1.91 to 1.80 in the last two months
- Trudeau’s odds have dropped from 1.83 to 2.10
- The Liberals have won five of the last eight federal elections
- The Conservatives have won three of the last four federal elections
- Trudeau and the Liberals won 184 seats last election, the most during the last eight elections
Canadian Election Betting Odds: Scheer or Trudeau?
The Canadian election betting odds once again features a choice between the Conservatives (Scheer) and the Liberals (Trudeau).
Since the 38th Canadian federal election, when the Conservative Party was formed, it has been between either of them. And this is unlikely to change despite the gradual increase in support for Elizabeth May’s Green Party or the formation of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) under former PC MP Maxime Bernier.
Let’s take a look at our two leading candidates:
Andrew Scheer (1.80)
Scheer came from behind to edge Bernier in the 2017 Conservative leadership election winning by a hair. At just 32, Scheer became the Speaker of the House of Commons making him the youngest to do so. Now at 40, Scheer represents what the Conservatives hope is a new face for the platform.
Despite his youth and leaning more towards more progressive values, a trait Bernier explained as “pandering to everyone”, Scheer still supports a platform that is traditionally conservative: fiscal restraint, cutting down on government spending inefficiencies, and a tougher stance on crime.
Scheer has also begun the election campaign in a truly vintage Conservative tradition: attacking Trudeau and the Liberals. During the debates, which Scheer handled well except for the French language one, he focused half his time urging voters to vote out Trudeau and the Liberals in light of their multiple scandals.
In any province but Quebec, Scheer and his Conservatives have a decent chance of winning. And despite some blemishes on his resume—he has been caught lying and hiding facts about himself—he will give Trudeau a run for his money, especially as more dirt is dug up on the PM and his party.
Justin Trudeau (2.10)
Trudeau is no stranger to being an underdog during the elections. Just weeks before leading the Liberals to 184 seats from 36, the largest ever numerical increase in a federal election, he was a 3-1 underdog. When the campaign started, he was behind even NDP leader Thomas Mulcair.
Opening as a slight favourite to win the election and maintain his position as Prime Minister, a slew of scandals like the racist photo, Indigenous children’s’ compensation, and the resurfacing of the SNC-Lavalin case all threaten to derail Trudeau.
Trudeau rode a wave of feminism and multiculturalism in 2015 combined by the Canadian voters’ fatigue with Stephen Harper and the Conservative to command a dominant victory. But all of that is gone now. The public’s sentiment on Trudeau continues to decrease.
Although Trudeau still has a significant advantage over Scheer in several key places like British Columbia, Quebec, and southern Ontario, he is losing some ground. In the end, his key messages of “moving Canada forward”, an improved economy, and fear of Scheer turning into the unpopular Doug Ford could be enough to get him and Liberals re-elected.
2019 Canadian Election Odds: The Other Leaders
The 2019 Canadian election odds features not just Scheer and Trudeau. Canadians have three (four if we count Yves-Francois Blanchet of the Bloc Quebecois) other leaders to choose from. And although odds have each of them as nothing more than a longshot, let’s get to know what they’re about:
Jagmeet Singh (13.00)
As the leader of the ever-changing NDP (New Democratic Party), Singh is firmly entrenched as a distant third placer. The NDP is far from its “glory days” where they were the official opposition in 2011.
Singh and the NDP are campaigning to the average Canadian with several reforms on healthcare. But being a new face, he has a long way to go to establish rapport with the voters.
Elizabeth May (34.00)
Opposite to Singh, the Green Party’s Elizabeth May has been the longest-serving party leader among the five. May has been campaigning for the Greens since 2006 and has slowly but steadily increased their influence.
In light of Canadians’ ever-growing concern for climate change and the environment, the Greens could win even more support this year. But a third-place finish is the best they can hope for.
Maxime Bernier (34.00)
The new kid on the block, Bernier narrowly lost the PC leadership and formed his own party. Taking a shot at Scheer and the Conservatives, Bernier promises to have a party that has more traditional conservative roots.
Many of his policies are populist and opposed to the more progressive platforms. He isn’t being taken seriously by the mainstream media, but he has a passionate fanbase lurking. He is the dark horse of this election.
How to Predict the Canadian Election Odds
You can predict the Canadian election odds with a little bit of research in the form of keeping up with the news, reading up on blogs (preferably not from mainstream media) and tracking Canadian election betting odds.
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