UFC 253 comes packed with fireworks from both inside the octagon and the betting lines as middleweight king Israel Adesanya settles his grudge with the unbeaten destroyer, Paulo Costa. Both fighters are explosive strikers and with ill will all but guaranteeing heated exchanges. Co-headlining are red-hot fighters Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz facing off for the vacant light heavyweight title. Let's break down these fights and see which bets we can cash.
How To Predict The Super Bowl Winner
Every bettor goes into a particular NFL season with their own favourites to come out with a Super Bowl victory, and many aren't afraid to drop a few bucks on those teams in the summer time. But while those longshot odds can pay off handsomely when they hit, the chances of hitting a preseason Super Bowl winner wager are quite slim.
So many different things can happen to teams throughout the course of a season (injuries, poor play, tough schedules etc) to drastically hurt those championship chances, so often times it's better to wait until at least a few months into the NFL season before predicting a Super Bowl winner becomes a more viable betting option. This article will touch on some things to keep in mind when trying to collect on those NFL futures bets during the year.
Super Bowl Futures Odds
The best way to attack Super Bowl futures is to first get a sense of what teams legitimately have a chance to not only get into the playoffs, but make a deep run once they get there as well. It often takes 8+ weeks to have a true idea of what NFL teams will be considered "contenders" and which ones are merely "pretenders" and narrowing the field down significantly is always a good place to start. Yes, the odds won't be as good on a 1st place team halfway through the year as they would have been in the preseason, but at least at that point you'll know your bet has a great shot at making the playoffs and from there anything can happen.
After that, waiting until Week 16 or 17 when the playoff bracket is basically filled out allows bettors to map out potential routes for each team to get to the big game. The NFL playoffs format never changes as it's always the top two seeds in each conference getting a bye, and from there it's always the highest remaining seed vs. the lowest remaining seed until the big game arrives.
Armed with a year's worth of advanced stats and analytics, bettors can map out just what it will likely take for each playoff team to get to the Super Bowl. Compare your favourable routes with the odds offered at sportsbooks and then shop around for the best number on the teams you feel strongly enough to back. If this is the route you are going to take, then backing at least one team from each conference is the best way to go, but there is no need to go overboard with 5+ selections, because after all, there will only be one champion.
Predicting Super Bowl Winners
Finally, don't be afraid to back those fringe playoff teams that surprised many throughout the year. We've seen plenty of Super Bowls being won by underdogs the past decade or so, most notably the New York Giants in 2007. In 2015 it was the Denver Broncos who claimed the title as underdogs vs. Carolina, but with the Broncos being the #1 seed in the AFC, it was almost better to wait until you knew they were in the Super Bowl until betting them to win it all. It's not like you have to get a Super Bowl futures bet down just because you like a team or two, you can simply ride them on the money line in each playoff game they play until they buck you. You might not get those just +1500 odds or whatever on that team prior to the playoffs, but if you bet it right the entire way you can make just as much money, if not more, going with a game-by-game strategy.
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