Kentucky Derby 2019: Keys to Cash
One of the most highly-anticipated wagering events in the free world, the Kentucky Derby’s 20-horse stampede provides unique challenges and opportunities. With so many uninformed and casual bettors making Derby wagers, the odds tilt drastically in favor of players who have an informed opinion – remember this is a parimutuel game!
For those who want to lock in their odds before May 4, here’s a quick look at the futures being offered on the top 5 Kentucky Derby 2019 favorites at Bodog:
- Game Winner +500
- Roadster +500
- Omaha Beach +550
- Improbable +700
- Tacitus +1000
Creating big Derby payouts
There’s nothing better than a big score on a big day. As I’ve mentioned here, the Kentucky Derby odds provides some outstanding opportunities to cash due to the inflated wagering pools. Exactas, Trifectas, Superfectas, Pick 4′s, Pick 5′s and Pick 6′s all have the ability to produce windfall profits.
While the betting favorite has won the Derby in each of the last six years (2013-2018), those connecting on exotic wagers have still fared quite well. For example, the 2018 Derby superfecta returned $19,618.20 on a $1 wager despite a very formful top three led by eventual Triple Crown winner Justify at the short price of 5/2. Instilled Regard spiced things up in the fourth position, sending the payout skyrocketing for those who included him.
In short, you don’t have to come up with something too outlandish to cash a large ticket. A few good opinions, and the willingness to take a stab is sometimes all it takes.
Horses to bet in the 2019 Kentucky Derby
Going back to last year’s example, most astute handicappers liked Justify, Good Magic and Audible – the eventual 1-3 finishers. While the trifecta only returned $141.20 on a dollar wager, any bettor willing to toss his hat in the superfecta ring and hit “ALL” in the fourth position, is probably still counting his money. Here’s the takeway: find one or two horses you really like and use them to anchor your exotic bets.
In the 2019 renewal of the Derby, I like Tacitus as my so-called “anchor horse.” I’ll likely use him in all rungs of the exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers, spreading out around him with a combination of other key horses. These “other horses” will largely consist of Tax, Long Range Toddy, War of Will, Game Winner, and Improbable. When I start crafting tickets, I’ll get a little more creative and may put together a superfecta that looks something like this:
- 1st: Tacitus
- 2nd: Tax, Long Range Toddy, War of Will, Game Winner, Improbable
- 3rd: Tax, Long Range Toddy, War of Will, Game Winner, Improbable
- 4th: ALL Runners
- Cost=$340 per $1 base wager/$34 per 10-cent base wager
This is a pricy wager for sure, but if I’m right, the reward will certainly justify the expense. Keep in mind, the superfecta can be placed on a 10-cent minimum, so this ticket could actually be played for just $34.
Keys to the 2019 Derby
- From a pure Kentucky Derby horse odds handicapping standpoint, this year’s field looks as wide-open as any we’ve had in recent memory. There’s no apparent superstar, but Tacitus has certainly looked the part in his two starts this year, winning the Tampa Derby and Wood Memorial. Despite his accomplishments, Tacitus doesn’t seem to be getting ample credit. Even Bovada’s future wager odds reflect this, as he’s currently co-fifth choice.
- Bettors are probably going to latch onto trainer Bob Bafferts trio of runners (Game Winner, Roadster, and Improbable), and while all three could get the job done, they will most assuredly be overbet. Wood Memorial runner-up Tax is and under-the-radar type that I’ve got my eye one. He wasn’t beaten all that much by Tacitus and certainly has the style and pedigree to get the mile and one quarter distance.
- Long Range Toddy is another runner that should be a square price. He will handle the distance and has a running style that should play well at classic distances.
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