UFC 253 comes packed with fireworks from both inside the octagon and the betting lines as middleweight king Israel Adesanya settles his grudge with the unbeaten destroyer, Paulo Costa. Both fighters are explosive strikers and with ill will all but guaranteeing heated exchanges. Co-headlining are red-hot fighters Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz facing off for the vacant light heavyweight title. Let's break down these fights and see which bets we can cash.
NFL Divisional Championships Odds, Predictions and Live Scores
As we inch closer to the Divisional round, we look to make some more profit before the end of the season. We sadly went 1-3 last week as square plays mostly cashed, so we will shift gears for this week. Playing on teams off the bye has been absolute money in past years, but hasn't fared so well recently. After seeing last week's results and where the money's going, get ready for an interesting week. Let's get into it!
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons, January 14
BET ATLANTA FALCONS -5 at SPORTSINTERACTION
The last time the Atlanta Falcons faced the Seahawks in the 2012 playoffs, they eeked out a win, leaving rookie Russell Wilson dejected and defeated. They've played each other since, including a 2 point Seahawks win back in October, but this game will go a lot differently. The Seattle Seahawks defense is not what it used to be after losing Earl Thomas, despite their impressive win last week over the Lions. QB Matt Ryan and the Falcons lead the league with 33.8 points per game.
Ryan has a stunning 137 passes without an interception and has 19 TDs to 4 INTs at the Georgia Dome this season. Julio Jones, 2nd in the league in receiving yards, is expected to be rested and ready to play. Falcons coach Dan Quinn also has the luxury of having been the defensive coordinator for the Seahawks during their Super Bowl appearances.
As it stands now, money has come on the Falcons, pushing it from 3.5 to 5 at most books. The public does happen to be on them as well, but there is still value in taking the -5, but if it goes to 6 it would be best to lay off. Trends also don't seem to favor either side, as both teams have struggled ATS in the playoffs in recent years, and on the road and at home respectively.
With nothing to go on but game analysis itself, the Falcons are the play. Look for them to bust through that diminished defense and while the game could be close, it will be high scoring enough to give Atlanta the cover (ex. a final of 27-20). Take the Atlanta Falcons at -5.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots, January 14
BET NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -15 at WILLIAM HILL
This is a no-brainer game that people will try to make closer than it actually is.
The Houston Texans do have the league's best defense, but their opposition isn't any slouch in the points department, allowing the least amount of points in the NFL. History is definitely not on Houston's side either, as they have never beaten the New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium, even losing to them 27-0 when QB Tom Brady was suspended in September. They have lost their last two games to the Pats by 54-6.
The media will have to look for ways to give Houston a chance to make the game seem more interesting, and while the Texans do have a chance for the cover, there is still value in this number. It opened at -16, but has gone down to -15, so would be a decent play.
If it were any other team, the number would be too high, but given their history, and the trends, which have the favorite and home team going 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6, and 6-1-1- ATS in their last 8 respectively, New England is the play. Despite the high home lines, they are a superb 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 games at home, and 35-17-4 ATS in their last 56 home games against a team that's over .500 on the road. Don't overthink this one. Take the New England Patriots at -15.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, January 15
BET KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -1 at SPORTSINTERACTION
The Kansas City Chiefs look for revenge in most glorious fashion this weekend, against the team that blew them out 43-14 in Pittsburgh back in October. TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill have been on fire for the Chiefs, amassing 470 out of the 2150 total yards gained in KC's last 6 games.
The Pittsburgh Steelers will have Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell again, but the Chiefs should be more ready for them this time. It will be a close game, as evidenced from the short line, but the Chiefs have a better chance of making this a memorable win. They have the revenge factor, they are off a bye, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 between these two teams.
The Steelers are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 matchups in Kansas City. Neither team has a good recent playoff ATS record to speak of, but what's also of note is that Andy Reid's post-bye record also includes the playoffs. Analytically, these teams and QBs are fairly even, but the situational factors favor KC. The line has even moved in their favor despite the public coming in on Pittsburgh. Take the Kansas City Chiefs at -1.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, January 15
BET DALLAS COWBOYS -4
What's sure to be the most entertaining game of the weekend, we have the young Dak Prescott going up against the veteran Aaron Rodgers aka Mr. Hail Mary. He prophetically ran the table (and then some), and will try to continue his streak of 18 TDs without an INT in his last 7 games.
Green Bay Packers WR Jordy Nelson is still questionable after suffering an injury against the Giants last week. He has 1257 yards on 97 receptions with 14 TDs in the regular season, and has helped Green Bay sustain their 30+ point scoring power the past 5 games. The Dallas Cowboys have their own 1-2 punch in Dak Prescott, and Ezekiel Elliot, who led the Cowboys in crushing the Pack 30-16 in October. Prescott was 18/27 for 247 yards, and Elliot ran for 157 yards on 28 carries.
Dallas being at home is a huge advantage here. They have a rookie QB and the opportunity to begin a new era after 21 years of not making a Super Bowl appearance. The crowd backing the leading rusher in the league and future franchise QB will be intense, and while they might fall apart later on in the playoffs, it won't be here in their first game. The home team's also 10-4 ATS in the last 14 games between these teams, and the Packers are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 in Dallas. Look for Dallas to take this game by around 6. Take the Dallas Cowboys at -4.
2017 Super Bowl LI Outright at SportsInteraction
Looking forward to the Super Bowl now, we can add another team to our futures picks. Last week, we took the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs as good value picks. The Green Bay Packers could potentially be a threat, and at +600, they are the only team who played a Wild Card game that has a better chance than Atlanta and Kansas City, two teams with byes. The Packers luck will run out soon though, most likely at Dallas, so they should be discarded as well.
Of the 8 teams, only the New England Patriots would be good enough to add, as they came off a bye, and basically have a free week to stomp on the Texans, and will play their first real game during the Conference round. They are priced short at +150, so you should take them if you haven't taken Dallas or Kansas, but otherwise, stick with our first two picks. Be sure to like and share the article if you like the analysis and hopefully we might move lines in our favor.
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