Super Bowl Betting: Moneyline Odds, Prediction for 2018
The New England Patriots (-175) vs The Philadelphia Eagles (+155)
Not surprisingly, the oddsmakers are behind the Pats this year. New England is minus-175 on the moneyline to win the game. On the other side of the ball, Philly is plus 155 to pull off the upset. A Patriots bettor needs to wager $175 to recoup his original investment of $100. So that means an Eagles fan could bet $100 to walk away with a cool $155.
Are these odds fair? Pretty much. Let’s take a look at each team going into Sunday’s action
The Philadelphia Eagles (+155)
Let’s start with the underdogs, from a city that produced the greatest underdog movie ever, in Rocky. Seriously, Rudy sucked. Give me Rocky any day of the week. Anyways, the Eagles did not get here by chance. Their defense has been nothing short of spectacular in the playoffs. The Eagles have only surrendered 17 points in the playoffs this year. That’s no joke.
Here’s the rub for them. They have to jump on the Pats early and build a lead, before Touchdown Tommy removes his massive coat and comes into the 4th for a trademark comeback.
But how unbeatable are the Pats in the Super Bowl? Not very, at all if you REALLY look it. Last year it took a truly historic comeback, as they stormed back in a 28–3 comeback that Atlanta may never fully recover from. In their previous win against Seattle, The Seahawks had a chance on second and goal, but the most criticized play call in NFL history resulted in an interception and the W for the Pats. And the Patriots lost their previous two Super Bowl games in 2012 and 2008, and were held to a total of 33 points in those games.
The Eagles have the defensive talent to shut down the Patriots high-powered offense. But will they? Nah.
The New England Patriots (-175)
Patriots-haters, sorry, this isn’t your year.
To say the experience nod goes to the Patriots is a bit of a hilarious understatement. Tom Brady has played in 15% of all Super Bowls… ever! And he has almost played in as many playoff games as Nick Foles total games
But, let’s forget the offense for a second. Let’s talk about the Patriots very under-talked-about defense. During the regular season, the Pats held teams to 366 yards per game (4th best), held teams to 18.5 points per night (also 4th), 251.2 passing yards per night (3rd best), and only gave up 6 rushing touchdowns all year (2nd fewest). AND, in the playoffs, they’ve been even better, only giving up an average of 17 points per game in their two playoff wins.
So I don’t love the odds of a QB with no Super Sunday experience who’s played in fewer playoff games than Brady has rings doing well against this Pats D.
If the Patriots are down early, they can come back. I cannot say the same of the Eagles. I don’t think the offensive firepower is there. If they’re behind, they need hero plays from special teams and their defense.
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