Super Bowl Betting: Point Spread Odds, Prediction for 2018
The Vegas oddsmakers have placed the points spread at a very conservative 4.5 this year, for New England, with Sports Interaction’s price of 1.91. This means they’re looking for a tight game, which I can’t say I agree with. This presents a great opportunity for Canada’s sports bettors.
I personally see New England being in control most of the game, and the final score being in the 26-9 area. This means I’m also betting Under for the Over/Under bet of 48.5. I think they’re giving way too much credit to the Eagles’ offense, who I feel is going to take a reality check (more like spear-tackle) right to the face. It’s not that I don’t think the Eagles can score. They can. The Eagles put up an impressive 38 points last week. But that was not in The Super Bowl and not against the New England Patriots.
Prediction: The New England Patriots Beat The Spread (4.5) at Sports Interaction
Again, I hate to sound like I’m disrespecting Nick Foles and the Eagles offense. Yes, I can see that Philly is averaging 26.5 points per game in the playoffs. But that includes a 15-point grinding against the Falcons and the 38 point eruption against the Vikings.
Let’s take a closer look at that. They struggled against a Falcons D that was comparable to the Patriots on paper. Atlanta gave up 19.7 points per game in the regular season, which was good enough for 8th overall in the NFL. The Pats gave up 18.5, good enough for 5th overall. Not a huge difference in principle, but of course, the Pats put way more pressure on you with their offense.
Now, how about that 38 point eruption against Minnesota’s league-leading defense (15.8 points per game)? Yes, that is certainly something. Definitely. Nick Foles has shown an ability to be nothing short of incredible. Not too long ago, he was the 2nd quarterback to post a perfect passer rating (158.3) while passing for more than 400 yards, and also the first quarterback in NFL history to post a perfect passer rating and throw seven touchdowns in a single game
You can also argue that the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense has been the best in the NFL throughout the playoffs, holding teams to a total of 307.0 average yards per game. Yeah. But they didn’t exactly beat up the two toughest kids in doing so. The Falcons scored a very middle-of-the-pack 22.1 points per game in the regular season and The Vikings were upper-middle-average at 23.9.
Meanwhile, The Patriots are The Patriots. They’re more experienced and more talented. They know how to win big games. That’s what they do…annoyingly so. And for once they are going to have the crowd firmly behind them at a Super Bowl game. Again, the Eagles cost the Vikings’ insanely loyal fan-based a chance to be the first Super Bowl host city to cheer on their own team in the big game. “Aw Jeez.”
Look for the Patriots to beat the spread, pretty easily, in my humble view. And it’s very possible we will see the lead swell if the Pats jump on the Eagles early, and hit them in the mouth in the first quarter. Then we may see panic start to set in for the Super Bowl newbs in Purple.
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