UFC 253 comes packed with fireworks from both inside the octagon and the betting lines as middleweight king Israel Adesanya settles his grudge with the unbeaten destroyer, Paulo Costa. Both fighters are explosive strikers and with ill will all but guaranteeing heated exchanges. Co-headlining are red-hot fighters Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz facing off for the vacant light heavyweight title. Let’s break down these fights and see which bets we can cash.
UFC 250: bet on Nunes in a favourite-heavy event
The all-time greatest women’s fighter, Amanda Nunes returns to action headlining UFC 250′s onslaught of betting favourites. Nunes looks to “rebound” after being unable to finish Germaine de Randamie in her last bout as she defends her featherweight strap against an overmatched Felicia Spencer. Other big favourites joining her are bantamweight Sean O’Malley taking on longtime vet Eddie Wineland, and short-notice specialist, Neil Magny. Let’s look at the UFC 250 best bets.
The all-time greatest women’s fighter, Amanda Nunes returns to action headlining UFC 250′s onslaught of betting favourites.
Nunes looks to “rebound” after being unable to finish Germaine de Randamie in her last bout as she defends her featherweight strap against an overmatched Felicia Spencer. Other big favourites joining her are bantamweight Sean O’Malley taking on longtime vet Eddie Wineland, and short-notice specialist, Neil Magny.
UFC 250 betting odds & facts
- Nunes opened at 1.25 and has been bet down to as low as 1.17
- Spencer opened at 3.85 and has been bet up to as high as 5.61
- Six of Nunes’s last ten fights have ended in the first round
- Four of Spencer’s last five fights did not go to decision
- Fighters who opened as underdogs are 3-2 in the last five UFC main events
Let’s look at the UFC 250 best bets.
UFC 250: which favourites to bet, which to avoid
As far as UFC pay-per-view’s go, the favourites are usually the dominant crop. Sure, upsets happen sometimes but they are quite rare. But don’t go in blindly and throw money at all the biggest favourites hoping to earn lunch money out of your paycheque.
Let’s pick which ones to ride and which ones to kick to the curb (odds via Bodog):
Bet on these favourites:
Amanda Nunes – 1.17
We don’t usually recommend staking over five times the amount you want to win, but Nunes is as close to a “sure bet” as you can find. The champ-champ is eons better than Spencer, who nary has a puncher’s chance or a fluke submission going for her.
We’ll give Spencer credit, she’s tough, she’s good on the ground, and she might hit harder than her two TKOs indicate. But if Nunes can eat Cyborg’s knuckle sandwiches like pancakes, she’ll be ready for Spencer. She should whoop Spencer within three rounds.
Prop bet bonus: if you can find props, put a side bet on “Nunes to win in round 1″ and “Nunes to win by T/KO”. She may respect Spencer at first, but once she realizes the skills gap on their feet, she’ll piece her up until the referee mercifully steps in.
Neil Magny – 1.67
That year-and-half layoff is what Magny needed as he looked like a rejuvenated fighter when he styled on Li Jingliang in his return fight in March. Magny has an incredible 80″ reach and he uses that reach to great effect as he outstrikes and outmanoeuvres his opponents. Anthony Martin (2.20) is no slouch, but his “just bang bro” strategy will play exactly into Magny’s style.
Avoid these favourites:
Cody Garbrandt – 1.69
The former bantamweight champ has not won a fight since he became the champ way back in 2016. He’s suffered three consecutive losses – all knockouts. But while he doesn’t have to worry about Raphael Assuncao (2.15) knocking him out, he’s dealing with one of the division’s most experienced and well-rounded vets.
Assuncao has beaten a laundry list of top-five fighters including Aljamain Sterling, Marlon Moraes, and Garbrandt’s nemesis: former two-time champ, T.J. Dillashaw. While he’s fading away and is coming off back-to-back losses, he still has the size, strength, and savvy to frustrate Garbrandt.
Underdog bet bonus: fade Garbrandt and bank on Assuncao to make this into his trademark grindfest that could see at least two judges give him the nod.
Sean O’Malley – 1.25
The Suga factory is pumping out bandwagoners and chalkers at full express, but it’s inconceivable to bet him at these odds. Yes, he’s one of the division’s best and brightest and he’s a star-in-the-making and yes, he’s taking on a punchdrunk vet, but there is still a good chance this fight is closer than odds indicate.
Wineland, one of the division’s hardest hitters, has shown he still has something in the tank when he whipped Grigory Popov last year. The former WEC champ only needs one good punch to hurt his opponent. Even if he is outgunned by a younger, craftier, and longer fighter, he might just make this a fight.
UFC 250: try these parlays for prolific returns
We don’t just recommend betting on the favourites (and underdog) there. If you want a bigger bang for your buck, try using parlays: combining these different bets into one ticket for one big payout:
Parlay Nunes (1.17) and Magny (1.69) – 1.94
As noted, Nunes is the easiest bet on the card. She should trounce Spencer with no issues while Magny should also beat Martin. Combine the two into a parlay to receive almost a 1:1 payout. Great value!
Lottery: parlay Assuncao (2.15), Wineland (4.00), and Meerschaert (2.00) - 17.20
Throw a bit into this mega parlay that could turn your lunch money into an insurance payment at these odds. Assuncao is almost a 50-50 bet to “upset” Garbrandt while Wineland, though a longshot, may just crack O’Malley and pull it off. Gerald Meerschaert is not that much worse than Ian Heinisch (1.77) and is worth a straight bet himself. But throw him in here to pump these odds to lottery level.
May the MMA gods bless your parlays!
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